Forecasting

Our approach

• This training course consists of two training days. 
• The training course offers a mix of theoretical background and practical exercises.
• We will work on the participants' specific issues.
• The training course offers the opportunity to exchange experiences with other participants.
• The learning experience is supported and reinforced by the use of an online learning platform.
• A training certificate can be provided.

More about Stanwick Academy

What can you expect

• You will gain insight into the various tools, techniques and models that will help you accurately draw up, evaluate and adjust a validated forecast.
• You will gain insight into both the organisational component (setting up governance with cross-functional teams) and the data component (reliable data as a source for forecasting models) of the forecasting process.
• You will learn how you can further professionalise and optimise the forecasting process in your organisation with measurable impact.

Programme

Module 1: Introduction

• The role of forecasting
• Characteristics of forecasting
• High-level overview of forecasting models

Module 2: Forecasting process

• Essential elements of a forecasting process
  • Roles and responsibilities
  • Meeting structure
  • Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) & Integrated Business Planning (IBP) cycle

Module 3: Data analysis & data correction

• Which data to use and how much data is needed?
• Evaluating data reliability
• Data correction and causes of data contamination
• Decomposition of demand: seasonal effect and trend

Module 4: Forecasting techniques and models

• Qualitative techniques: experts, market studies, sales team estimates
• Time series models
  • Static: constant, linear trend, polynomial
  • Adaptive: moving average, exponential smoothing (simple exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, Winters model, Holt model, etc.)
• Causal techniques
  • Regression models, ARIMA, econometric models
• Use of IT tools

Module 5: Evaluating forecasts

• Evaluating forecast performance using various accuracy metrics:
  • Period forecast error & standard deviation
  • APE (absolute percentage of error) & standard deviation
  • MAD (mean absolute deviation)
  • MAPE (mean absolute percentage of error)
• Forecast bias
  • Strategies to minimise forecast bias

Module 6: Professionalising the forecasting process

• Data optimisations
• Organisational optimisations
  • S&OP process and demand planning
  • Scenario planning: what-if simulations
  • Improving forecast accuracy across functions
• Case study

Module 7: Pitfalls and best practices in forecasting

• Additional practical experience
• Overview of best practice IT tools
• Drawing up a concrete and workable action plan for your organisation

Target group

• Managers who make decisions based on validated information: active in sales, finance, supply chain and operations. 
• Professionals active in sales/demand or production planning, as well as the broader Sales & Operations (S&OP) process.
• This training is suitable for both managers and professionals active in SMEs and larger (international) organisations.